The international dry bulk shipping market is expected to pick up in the second half of 2015, a report from the Shanghai International Shipping Institute (SISI) has predicted.
However, a recovery to the average level seen in recent years is far away, SISI said.
The institute pointed to India as the country likely to fill the gap in demand left by China, with its slowing economy. The development potential of India is estimated to be huge in terms of per capita GDP and infrastructure.
At present, coal imports by India have offset a 75% decrease in Chinese coal imports. In five years, India’s coal imports are forecast to offset, and even outweigh, an even larger decrease in China’s coal imports.
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Demand in China will continue to be depressed after the Chinese economy enters “a new normal”, said SISI. Although sales of real estate in China have significantly picked up, fixed capital investment growth remains weak in the face of downward pressures for the economy.
In the end, support for the dry bulk market from China’s demand will be limited despite a substantial rise in infrastructure investment, as it is dragged down by overcapacity in the economy and high stock levels.