The international dry bulk shipping market is expected to pick up in the second half of 2015, Shanghai International Shipping Institute (SISI) said in a report.
However, a recovery to the average level recorded in the past years in the market lies far away, SISI said. The institute also gave more attention to India as the South Asian country is expected to fill the gap in demand left by China due to its slowing economy.
The development potential of India is estimated to be huge in terms of per capita GDP and infrastructures if compared with China. Currently, the coal imports of India has offset the 75% of decrease in China’s coal imports. In five years, India’s coal imports are forecast to offset the 100% decrease in China’s coal imports and likely surpass the deficit.
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On the other hand, the demand in China will continue to be depressed after the Chinese economy enters the new normal, said SISI. Although the sales of real estate in China has significantly picked up, the fixed capital investment growth remains weak in the face of downturn pressures for the economy.
In the end, support for the dry bulk market from China’s demand will be limited despite a substantial rise in infrastructure investment, as it is dragged down by overcapacity in the economy and high levels of stocks.